The Italian real-estate sector is experiencing strong momentum: in the first nine months of 2025, 548,287 property transactions were recorded, representing a 9.1% increase over the same period the previous year. However, 2026 brings significant regulatory and tax changes.
Superbonus campaign: 500,000 properties in the crosshairs
In 2025, the Agenzia delle Entrate (Italian Revenue Agency) launched a compliance campaign related to the Superbonus. Those who transferred the tax credit without filing the required cadastral variation may receive a notification from the tax authorities. The measure concerns approximately 500,000 properties that may need an update to their cadastral income.
Cadastral reform
The integrated information in the buildings cadastre must be made available from 1 January 2026. The Agenzia delle Entrate, together with the municipalities, will have new tools to identify "phantom" properties and those whose classification does not reflect reality. However, the new information must not be used to determine the tax base for levies.
Building bonuses 2026: the tightening
From 2026, there is a definitive shift toward selective building incentives:
- 50% renovation bonus: confirmed only for the primary residence
- Cedolare secca on short-term rentals: 21% for the first property, 26% from the second
- Access to incentives also for properties that benefited from a building amnesty
2026 forecasts
According to Tecnocasa, 2026 is expected to close with 780,000 to 790,000 transactions. House prices are expected to rise between 1% and 3%, with new or refurbished properties holding their value better than those requiring renovation.
Sources: ANSA, Il Sole 24 Ore